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http://hdl.handle.net/10985/10073
Bayesian quantification of thermodynamic uncertainties in dense gas flows
MERLE, Xavier; CINNELLA, Paola
A Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood func-tion includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the true phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to infor-mative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.
Thu, 01 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/100732015-01-01T00:00:00ZMERLE, XavierCINNELLA, PaolaA Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood func-tion includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the true phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to infor-mative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.Convergence of Fourier-based time methods for turbomachinery wake passing problems
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/10074
Convergence of Fourier-based time methods for turbomachinery wake passing problems
GOMAR, Adrien; BOUVY, Quentin; SICOT, Frédéric; DUFOUR, Guillaume; CINNELLA, Paola; FRANCOIS, Benjamin
The convergence of Fourier-based time methods applied to turbomachinery flows is assessed. The focus is on the harmonic balance method, which is a timedomain Fourier-based approach standing as an efficient alternative to classical time marching schemes for periodic flows. In the literature, no consensus exists concerning the number of harmonics needed to achieve convergence for turbomachinery stage configurations. In this paper it is shown that the convergence of Fourier-based methods is closely related to the impulsive nature of the flow solution, which in turbomachines is essentially governed by the characteristics of the passing wakes between adjacent rows. As a result of the proposed analysis, a priori estimates are provided for the minimum number of harmonics required to accurately compute a given turbomachinery configuration. Their application to several contra-rotating open-rotor configurations is assessed, demonstrating the practical interest of the proposed methodology.
Wed, 01 Jan 2014 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/100742014-01-01T00:00:00ZGOMAR, AdrienBOUVY, QuentinSICOT, FrédéricDUFOUR, GuillaumeCINNELLA, PaolaFRANCOIS, BenjaminThe convergence of Fourier-based time methods applied to turbomachinery flows is assessed. The focus is on the harmonic balance method, which is a timedomain Fourier-based approach standing as an efficient alternative to classical time marching schemes for periodic flows. In the literature, no consensus exists concerning the number of harmonics needed to achieve convergence for turbomachinery stage configurations. In this paper it is shown that the convergence of Fourier-based methods is closely related to the impulsive nature of the flow solution, which in turbomachines is essentially governed by the characteristics of the passing wakes between adjacent rows. As a result of the proposed analysis, a priori estimates are provided for the minimum number of harmonics required to accurately compute a given turbomachinery configuration. Their application to several contra-rotating open-rotor configurations is assessed, demonstrating the practical interest of the proposed methodology.Bayesian estimates of parameter variability in the k − ε turbulence model
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/10077
Bayesian estimates of parameter variability in the k − ε turbulence model
EDELING, Wouter Nico; CINNELLA, Paola; DWIGHT, Richard P.; BIJL, H.
In this paper we are concerned with obtaining estimates for the error in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations based on the Launder-Sharma k−ε turbulence closure model, for a limited class of flows. In particular we search for estimates grounded in uncertainties in the space of model closure coeffi-cients, for wall-bounded flows at a variety of favourable and adverse pressure gradients. In order to estimate the spread of closure coefficients which repro-duces these flows accurately, we perform 13 separate Bayesian calibrations – each at a different pressure gradient – using measured boundary-layer velocity profiles, and a statistical model containing a multiplicative model inadequacy term in the solution space. The results are 13 joint posterior distributions over coefficients and hyper-parameters. To summarize this information we compute Highest Posterior-Density (HPD) intervals, and subsequently represent the to-tal solution uncertainty with a probability-box (p-box). This p-box represents both parameter variability across flows, and epistemic uncertainty within each calibration. A prediction of a new boundary-layer flow is made with uncer-tainty bars generated from this uncertainty information, and the resulting error estimate is shown to be consistent with measurement data.
Wed, 01 Jan 2014 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/100772014-01-01T00:00:00ZEDELING, Wouter NicoCINNELLA, PaolaDWIGHT, Richard P.BIJL, H.In this paper we are concerned with obtaining estimates for the error in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations based on the Launder-Sharma k−ε turbulence closure model, for a limited class of flows. In particular we search for estimates grounded in uncertainties in the space of model closure coeffi-cients, for wall-bounded flows at a variety of favourable and adverse pressure gradients. In order to estimate the spread of closure coefficients which repro-duces these flows accurately, we perform 13 separate Bayesian calibrations – each at a different pressure gradient – using measured boundary-layer velocity profiles, and a statistical model containing a multiplicative model inadequacy term in the solution space. The results are 13 joint posterior distributions over coefficients and hyper-parameters. To summarize this information we compute Highest Posterior-Density (HPD) intervals, and subsequently represent the to-tal solution uncertainty with a probability-box (p-box). This p-box represents both parameter variability across flows, and epistemic uncertainty within each calibration. A prediction of a new boundary-layer flow is made with uncer-tainty bars generated from this uncertainty information, and the resulting error estimate is shown to be consistent with measurement data.Multi-fidelity optimization strategy for the industrial aerodynamic design of helicopter rotor blades
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/10072
Multi-fidelity optimization strategy for the industrial aerodynamic design of helicopter rotor blades
LEUSINK, Debbie; ALFANO, David; CINNELLA, Paola
The industrial aerodynamic design of helicopter rotor blades needs to consider the two typical flight conditions of hover and forward flight simultaneously. Here, this multi-objective design problem is tackled by using a genetic algorithm, coupled to rotor performance simulation tools. The turn-around time of an optimization loop is acceptable in an industrial design loop when using low-cost, low-fidelity tools such as the comprehensive rotorcraft code HOST, but becomes excessively high when employing high-fidelity models like CFD methods. To incorporate high-fidelity models into the optimization loop while maintaining a moderate computational cost, a Multi-Fidelity Optimization (MFO) strategy is proposed: as a preliminary step, a HOST-based genetic algorithm optimization is used to reduce the parameter space and select a set of blade geometries used for initializing the high-fidelity stage. Secondly, the selected blades are re-evaluated by CFD and used to construct a high-fidelity surrogate model. Finally, a Surrogate Based Optimization (SBO) is carried out and the Pareto optimal individuals according to the SBO are recomputed by CFD for final performance evaluation. The proposed strategy is validated step by step. It is shown that an industrially acceptable number of CFD-simulations is sufficient to obtain blade designs with a significantly higher performance than the baseline and then SBO results issued from a standard Latin-Hypercube-Sampling initialization. The proposed MFO strategy represents an efficient method for the simultaneous optimization of rotor blade geometries in hover and forward flight.
Thu, 01 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/100722015-01-01T00:00:00ZLEUSINK, DebbieALFANO, DavidCINNELLA, PaolaThe industrial aerodynamic design of helicopter rotor blades needs to consider the two typical flight conditions of hover and forward flight simultaneously. Here, this multi-objective design problem is tackled by using a genetic algorithm, coupled to rotor performance simulation tools. The turn-around time of an optimization loop is acceptable in an industrial design loop when using low-cost, low-fidelity tools such as the comprehensive rotorcraft code HOST, but becomes excessively high when employing high-fidelity models like CFD methods. To incorporate high-fidelity models into the optimization loop while maintaining a moderate computational cost, a Multi-Fidelity Optimization (MFO) strategy is proposed: as a preliminary step, a HOST-based genetic algorithm optimization is used to reduce the parameter space and select a set of blade geometries used for initializing the high-fidelity stage. Secondly, the selected blades are re-evaluated by CFD and used to construct a high-fidelity surrogate model. Finally, a Surrogate Based Optimization (SBO) is carried out and the Pareto optimal individuals according to the SBO are recomputed by CFD for final performance evaluation. The proposed strategy is validated step by step. It is shown that an industrially acceptable number of CFD-simulations is sufficient to obtain blade designs with a significantly higher performance than the baseline and then SBO results issued from a standard Latin-Hypercube-Sampling initialization. The proposed MFO strategy represents an efficient method for the simultaneous optimization of rotor blade geometries in hover and forward flight.Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/10035
Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging
CINNELLA, Paola
The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.
Wed, 01 Jan 2014 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/100352014-01-01T00:00:00ZCINNELLA, PaolaThe turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.Simplex-stochastic collocation method with improved scalability
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/15517
Simplex-stochastic collocation method with improved scalability
EDELING, Wouter Nico; DWIGHT, Richard P.; CINNELLA, Paola
The Simplex-Stochastic Collocation (SSC) method is a robust tool used to propagate uncertain input distributions through a computer code. However, it becomes prohibitively expensive for problems with dimensions higher than 5. The main purpose of this paper is to identify bottlenecks, and to improve upon this bad scalability. In order to do so, we propose an alternative interpolation stencil technique based upon the Set-Covering problem, and we integrate the SSC method in the High-Dimensional Model-Reduction framework. In addition, we address the issue of ill-conditioned sample matrices, and we present an analytical map to facilitate uniformly-distributed simplex sampling.
Fri, 01 Jan 2016 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/155172016-01-01T00:00:00ZEDELING, Wouter NicoDWIGHT, Richard P.CINNELLA, PaolaThe Simplex-Stochastic Collocation (SSC) method is a robust tool used to propagate uncertain input distributions through a computer code. However, it becomes prohibitively expensive for problems with dimensions higher than 5. The main purpose of this paper is to identify bottlenecks, and to improve upon this bad scalability. In order to do so, we propose an alternative interpolation stencil technique based upon the Set-Covering problem, and we integrate the SSC method in the High-Dimensional Model-Reduction framework. In addition, we address the issue of ill-conditioned sample matrices, and we present an analytical map to facilitate uniformly-distributed simplex sampling.Robust prediction of dense gas flows under uncertain thermodynamic models
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/15563
Robust prediction of dense gas flows under uncertain thermodynamic models
MERLE, Xavier; CINNELLA, Paola
A Bayesian approach is developed to quantify uncertainties associated with the thermodynamic models used for the simulation of dense gas flows, i.e. flows of gases characterized by complex molecules of moderate to high molecular weight, in thermodynamic conditions of the general order of magnitude of the liquid/vapor critical point. The thermodynamic behaviour of dense gases can be modelled through equations of state with various mathematical structures, all involving a set of material-dependent coefficients. For several organic fluids of industrial interest abundant and high-quality thermodynamic data required to specify such coefficients are hardly available, leading to undetermined levels of uncertainty of the equation output. Additionally, the best choice for the kind of equation of state (mathematical form) to be used is not always easy to determine and it is often based on expert opinion. In other terms, equations of state introduce both parametric and model-form uncertainties, which need to be quantified to make reliable predictions of the flow field. In this paper we propose a statistical inference methodology for estimating both kinds of uncertainties simultaneously. Our approach consists of a calibration step and a prediction step. The former allows to infer on the parameters to be input to the equation of state, based on the observation of aerodynamic quantities like pressure measurements at some locations in the dense gas flow. The subsequent prediction step allows to predict unobserved flow configurations based on the inferred posterior distributions of the coefficients. Model-form uncertainties are incorporated in the prediction step by using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. This consists in constructing an average of the predictions of various competing models weighted by the posterior model probabilities. Bayesian averaging also provides a useful tool for making robust predictions from a set of alternative calibration scenarios (Bayesian model-scenario averaging or BMSA). The proposed methodology is assessed for a class of dense gas flows, namely transonic flows around an isolated airfoil, at various free-stream thermodynamic conditions in the dense-gas region.
Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/155632019-01-01T00:00:00ZMERLE, XavierCINNELLA, PaolaA Bayesian approach is developed to quantify uncertainties associated with the thermodynamic models used for the simulation of dense gas flows, i.e. flows of gases characterized by complex molecules of moderate to high molecular weight, in thermodynamic conditions of the general order of magnitude of the liquid/vapor critical point. The thermodynamic behaviour of dense gases can be modelled through equations of state with various mathematical structures, all involving a set of material-dependent coefficients. For several organic fluids of industrial interest abundant and high-quality thermodynamic data required to specify such coefficients are hardly available, leading to undetermined levels of uncertainty of the equation output. Additionally, the best choice for the kind of equation of state (mathematical form) to be used is not always easy to determine and it is often based on expert opinion. In other terms, equations of state introduce both parametric and model-form uncertainties, which need to be quantified to make reliable predictions of the flow field. In this paper we propose a statistical inference methodology for estimating both kinds of uncertainties simultaneously. Our approach consists of a calibration step and a prediction step. The former allows to infer on the parameters to be input to the equation of state, based on the observation of aerodynamic quantities like pressure measurements at some locations in the dense gas flow. The subsequent prediction step allows to predict unobserved flow configurations based on the inferred posterior distributions of the coefficients. Model-form uncertainties are incorporated in the prediction step by using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. This consists in constructing an average of the predictions of various competing models weighted by the posterior model probabilities. Bayesian averaging also provides a useful tool for making robust predictions from a set of alternative calibration scenarios (Bayesian model-scenario averaging or BMSA). The proposed methodology is assessed for a class of dense gas flows, namely transonic flows around an isolated airfoil, at various free-stream thermodynamic conditions in the dense-gas region.Toward an improved wall treatment for multiple-correction k-exact schemes
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/15557
Toward an improved wall treatment for multiple-correction k-exact schemes
MENASRIA, Amandine; BRENNER, Pierre; CINNELLA, Paola; PONT, Grégoire
Improved wall boundary treatments are investigated for a family of high-order Godunovtype finite volume schemes based on k-exact polynomial reconstructions in each cell of the primitive variables, via a successive corrections procedure. We focus more particularly on the 1-exact and 2-exact schemes which offer a good trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. In both cases, the reconstruction stencil needs to be extended to the boundaries. Additionally, information about wall curvature has to be taken into account, which is done by using a surface model based on bicubic Bézier patches for the walls. The performance of the proposed models is presented for two compressible cases, namely the inviscid flow past a Gaussian bump and the viscous axisymmetric Couette flow.
Mon, 01 Jan 2018 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/155572018-01-01T00:00:00ZMENASRIA, AmandineBRENNER, PierreCINNELLA, PaolaPONT, GrégoireImproved wall boundary treatments are investigated for a family of high-order Godunovtype finite volume schemes based on k-exact polynomial reconstructions in each cell of the primitive variables, via a successive corrections procedure. We focus more particularly on the 1-exact and 2-exact schemes which offer a good trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. In both cases, the reconstruction stencil needs to be extended to the boundaries. Additionally, information about wall curvature has to be taken into account, which is done by using a surface model based on bicubic Bézier patches for the walls. The performance of the proposed models is presented for two compressible cases, namely the inviscid flow past a Gaussian bump and the viscous axisymmetric Couette flow.Data-Free and Data-Driven RANS Predictions with Quantified Uncertainty
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/15564
Data-Free and Data-Driven RANS Predictions with Quantified Uncertainty
EDELING, Wouter Nico; IACCARINO, Gianluca; CINNELLA, Paola
For the purpose of estimating the epistemic model-form uncertainty in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes closures, we propose two transport equations to locally perturb the Reynolds stress tensor of a given baseline eddy-viscosity model. The spatial structure of the perturbations is determined by the proposed transport equations, and thus does not have to be inferred from full-field reference data. Depending on a small number of model parameters and the local flow conditions, a ’return to eddy viscosity’ is described, and the underlying baseline state can be recovered. In order to make predictions with quantified uncertainty, we identify two separate methods, i.e. a data-free and data-driven approach. In the former no reference data is required and computationally inexpensive intervals are computed. When reference data is available, Bayesian inference can be applied to obtained informed distributions of the model parameters and simulation output.
Sun, 01 Jan 2017 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/155642017-01-01T00:00:00ZEDELING, Wouter NicoIACCARINO, GianlucaCINNELLA, PaolaFor the purpose of estimating the epistemic model-form uncertainty in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes closures, we propose two transport equations to locally perturb the Reynolds stress tensor of a given baseline eddy-viscosity model. The spatial structure of the perturbations is determined by the proposed transport equations, and thus does not have to be inferred from full-field reference data. Depending on a small number of model parameters and the local flow conditions, a ’return to eddy viscosity’ is described, and the underlying baseline state can be recovered. In order to make predictions with quantified uncertainty, we identify two separate methods, i.e. a data-free and data-driven approach. In the former no reference data is required and computationally inexpensive intervals are computed. When reference data is available, Bayesian inference can be applied to obtained informed distributions of the model parameters and simulation output.Sensitivity of Supersonic ORC Turbine Injector Designs to Fluctuating Operating Conditions
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/15321
Sensitivity of Supersonic ORC Turbine Injector Designs to Fluctuating Operating Conditions
BUFI, Elio Antonio; CINNELLA, Paola; MERLE, Xavier; CINNELLA, Paola
The design of an efficient organic rankine cycle (ORC) expander needs to take properly into account strong real gas effects that may occur in given ranges of operating conditions, which can also be highly variable. In this work, we first design ORC turbine geometries by means of a fast 2-D design procedure based on the method of characteristics (MOC) for supersonic nozzles characterized by strong real gas effects. Thanks to a geometric post-processing procedure, the resulting nozzle shape is then adapted to generate an axial ORC blade vane geometry. Subsequently, the impact of uncertain operating conditions on turbine design is investigated by coupling the MOC algorithm with a Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) algorithm. Besides, the injector geometry generated at nominal operating conditions is simulated by means of an in-house CFD solver. The code is coupled to the PCM algorithm and a performance sensitivity analysis, in terms of adiabatic efficiency and power output, to variations of the operating conditions is carried out.
Thu, 01 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/153212015-01-01T00:00:00ZBUFI, Elio AntonioCINNELLA, PaolaMERLE, XavierCINNELLA, PaolaThe design of an efficient organic rankine cycle (ORC) expander needs to take properly into account strong real gas effects that may occur in given ranges of operating conditions, which can also be highly variable. In this work, we first design ORC turbine geometries by means of a fast 2-D design procedure based on the method of characteristics (MOC) for supersonic nozzles characterized by strong real gas effects. Thanks to a geometric post-processing procedure, the resulting nozzle shape is then adapted to generate an axial ORC blade vane geometry. Subsequently, the impact of uncertain operating conditions on turbine design is investigated by coupling the MOC algorithm with a Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) algorithm. Besides, the injector geometry generated at nominal operating conditions is simulated by means of an in-house CFD solver. The code is coupled to the PCM algorithm and a performance sensitivity analysis, in terms of adiabatic efficiency and power output, to variations of the operating conditions is carried out.