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http://hdl.handle.net/10985/15563
Robust prediction of dense gas flows under uncertain thermodynamic models
MERLE, Xavier; CINNELLA, Paola
A Bayesian approach is developed to quantify uncertainties associated with the thermodynamic models used for the simulation of dense gas flows, i.e. flows of gases characterized by complex molecules of moderate to high molecular weight, in thermodynamic conditions of the general order of magnitude of the liquid/vapor critical point. The thermodynamic behaviour of dense gases can be modelled through equations of state with various mathematical structures, all involving a set of material-dependent coefficients. For several organic fluids of industrial interest abundant and high-quality thermodynamic data required to specify such coefficients are hardly available, leading to undetermined levels of uncertainty of the equation output. Additionally, the best choice for the kind of equation of state (mathematical form) to be used is not always easy to determine and it is often based on expert opinion. In other terms, equations of state introduce both parametric and model-form uncertainties, which need to be quantified to make reliable predictions of the flow field. In this paper we propose a statistical inference methodology for estimating both kinds of uncertainties simultaneously. Our approach consists of a calibration step and a prediction step. The former allows to infer on the parameters to be input to the equation of state, based on the observation of aerodynamic quantities like pressure measurements at some locations in the dense gas flow. The subsequent prediction step allows to predict unobserved flow configurations based on the inferred posterior distributions of the coefficients. Model-form uncertainties are incorporated in the prediction step by using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. This consists in constructing an average of the predictions of various competing models weighted by the posterior model probabilities. Bayesian averaging also provides a useful tool for making robust predictions from a set of alternative calibration scenarios (Bayesian model-scenario averaging or BMSA). The proposed methodology is assessed for a class of dense gas flows, namely transonic flows around an isolated airfoil, at various free-stream thermodynamic conditions in the dense-gas region.
Tue, 01 Jan 2019 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/155632019-01-01T00:00:00ZMERLE, XavierCINNELLA, PaolaA Bayesian approach is developed to quantify uncertainties associated with the thermodynamic models used for the simulation of dense gas flows, i.e. flows of gases characterized by complex molecules of moderate to high molecular weight, in thermodynamic conditions of the general order of magnitude of the liquid/vapor critical point. The thermodynamic behaviour of dense gases can be modelled through equations of state with various mathematical structures, all involving a set of material-dependent coefficients. For several organic fluids of industrial interest abundant and high-quality thermodynamic data required to specify such coefficients are hardly available, leading to undetermined levels of uncertainty of the equation output. Additionally, the best choice for the kind of equation of state (mathematical form) to be used is not always easy to determine and it is often based on expert opinion. In other terms, equations of state introduce both parametric and model-form uncertainties, which need to be quantified to make reliable predictions of the flow field. In this paper we propose a statistical inference methodology for estimating both kinds of uncertainties simultaneously. Our approach consists of a calibration step and a prediction step. The former allows to infer on the parameters to be input to the equation of state, based on the observation of aerodynamic quantities like pressure measurements at some locations in the dense gas flow. The subsequent prediction step allows to predict unobserved flow configurations based on the inferred posterior distributions of the coefficients. Model-form uncertainties are incorporated in the prediction step by using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach. This consists in constructing an average of the predictions of various competing models weighted by the posterior model probabilities. Bayesian averaging also provides a useful tool for making robust predictions from a set of alternative calibration scenarios (Bayesian model-scenario averaging or BMSA). The proposed methodology is assessed for a class of dense gas flows, namely transonic flows around an isolated airfoil, at various free-stream thermodynamic conditions in the dense-gas region.Sensitivity of Supersonic ORC Turbine Injector Designs to Fluctuating Operating Conditions
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/15321
Sensitivity of Supersonic ORC Turbine Injector Designs to Fluctuating Operating Conditions
BUFI, Elio Antonio; CINNELLA, Paola; MERLE, Xavier; CINNELLA, Paola
The design of an efficient organic rankine cycle (ORC) expander needs to take properly into account strong real gas effects that may occur in given ranges of operating conditions, which can also be highly variable. In this work, we first design ORC turbine geometries by means of a fast 2-D design procedure based on the method of characteristics (MOC) for supersonic nozzles characterized by strong real gas effects. Thanks to a geometric post-processing procedure, the resulting nozzle shape is then adapted to generate an axial ORC blade vane geometry. Subsequently, the impact of uncertain operating conditions on turbine design is investigated by coupling the MOC algorithm with a Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) algorithm. Besides, the injector geometry generated at nominal operating conditions is simulated by means of an in-house CFD solver. The code is coupled to the PCM algorithm and a performance sensitivity analysis, in terms of adiabatic efficiency and power output, to variations of the operating conditions is carried out.
Thu, 01 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/153212015-01-01T00:00:00ZBUFI, Elio AntonioCINNELLA, PaolaMERLE, XavierCINNELLA, PaolaThe design of an efficient organic rankine cycle (ORC) expander needs to take properly into account strong real gas effects that may occur in given ranges of operating conditions, which can also be highly variable. In this work, we first design ORC turbine geometries by means of a fast 2-D design procedure based on the method of characteristics (MOC) for supersonic nozzles characterized by strong real gas effects. Thanks to a geometric post-processing procedure, the resulting nozzle shape is then adapted to generate an axial ORC blade vane geometry. Subsequently, the impact of uncertain operating conditions on turbine design is investigated by coupling the MOC algorithm with a Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) algorithm. Besides, the injector geometry generated at nominal operating conditions is simulated by means of an in-house CFD solver. The code is coupled to the PCM algorithm and a performance sensitivity analysis, in terms of adiabatic efficiency and power output, to variations of the operating conditions is carried out.Bayesian quantification of thermodynamic uncertainties in dense gas flows
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/10073
Bayesian quantification of thermodynamic uncertainties in dense gas flows
MERLE, Xavier; CINNELLA, Paola
A Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood func-tion includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the true phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to infor-mative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.
Thu, 01 Jan 2015 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/100732015-01-01T00:00:00ZMERLE, XavierCINNELLA, PaolaA Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood func-tion includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the true phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to infor-mative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.Bayesian quantification of thermodynamic uncertainties in dense gas flows
http://hdl.handle.net/10985/8640
Bayesian quantification of thermodynamic uncertainties in dense gas flows
MERLE, Xavier; CINNELLA, Paola
A Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood function includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the rue phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to informative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.
Wed, 01 Jan 2014 00:00:00 GMThttp://hdl.handle.net/10985/86402014-01-01T00:00:00ZMERLE, XavierCINNELLA, PaolaA Bayesian inference methodology is developed for calibrating complex equations of state used in numerical fluid flow solvers. Precisely, the input parameters of three equations of state commonly used for modeling the thermodynamic behavior of so-called dense gas flows, – i.e. flows of gases characterized by high molecular weights and complex molecules, working in thermodynamic conditions close to the liquid-vapor saturation curve–, are calibrated by means of Bayesian inference from reference aerodynamic data for a dense gas flow over a wing section. Flow thermodynamic conditions are such that the gas thermodynamic behavior strongly deviates from that of a perfect gas. In the aim of assessing the proposed methodology, synthetic calibration data –specifically, wall pressure data– are generated by running the numerical solver with a more complex and accurate thermodynamic model. The statistical model used to build the likelihood function includes a model-form inadequacy term, accounting for the gap between the model output associated to the best-fit parameters, and the rue phenomenon. Results show that, for all of the relatively simple models under investigation, calibrations lead to informative posterior probability density distributions of the input parameters and improve the predictive distribution significantly. Nevertheless, calibrated parameters strongly differ from their expected physical values. The relationship between this behavior and model-form inadequacy is discussed.