Electrification of the French automotive industry: modeling the evolution of lithium demand

Abstract

This study models the evolution of lithium demand in France’s electric vehicle sector through 2100, using system dynamics to account for the interplay of extraction, recycling, and production projects. Following the European Union's 2023 decision to ban internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035, France has focused on securing critical raw materials, including lithium, to support its electrification goals. The system dynamics model incorporates the growth of the French electric vehicles fleet, lithium extraction from a newly established mine, and recycling rates mandated by European regulations. The results compare the scenario with the simulation and show when the electric vehicle industry will not be self-sufficient in lithium.